The Geopolitical Implications of Supreme Court's Judgment on Article 370
- Introduction
- The recent Supreme Court judgment validating the abolition of Article 370 for Jammu and Kashmir and the separation of Ladakh marks a significant shift in India’s strategic orientation on Kashmir.
- The legal clarity provided by the court signals the end of Delhi’s prolonged defensive stance and opens the door for a new phase in India’s Kashmir strategy.
- Question of Legitimacy
- While the judgment provides domestic legal closure on India’s sovereignty over Kashmir, it does not automatically deter external meddling.
- The resolution of this challenge requires the growth of India’s comprehensive national power, enhanced deterrence capabilities against Pakistan and China, and the construction of a sustainable political compact within Kashmir.
III. International Dynamics and Diplomacy
- Pakistan and China are unlikely to accept the Supreme Court’s decision, and international diplomatic positions on Kashmir are expected to remain unchanged.
- However, the global community will note India’s assertive stance on Kashmir, backed by its political self-assurance and rising international influence.
- Historical Context and Strategic Reversal
- The 1980s witnessed a crisis in Kashmir, culminating in a massive insurgency in 1989. Pakistan’s support, combined with international pressure, led to a series of military crises.
- In navigating these challenges, India displayed political flexibility but sought to reverse its stance during the Modi government’s first term, culminating in the scrapping of Article 370 early in the second term.
- Changing International Dynamics
- The changing attitudes of the US toward Kashmir, driven by converging Indo-Pacific interests and expanding strategic partnerships, have been instrumental in altering the international dynamic on Kashmir.
- The positive transformation of India’s relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia has limited Pakistan’s ability to mobilize the Islamic world against India.
- New Diplomacy for a “New Kashmir”
- India’s GDP, ten times larger than Pakistan’s, reflects a shifting balance of power.
- While challenges persist, including Pakistan’s deepening partnership with China, the current international environment is favorable for India to build a “New Kashmir.”
- However, to permanently transform international attitudes, peace and prosperity must be established in the region.
Conclusion
The Supreme Court’s judgment has provided a legal basis for India’s assertive position on Kashmir. While external challenges remain, India’s growing influence, strategic partnerships, and economic strength position it favorably to shape a “New Kashmir” and transform international perceptions of the region.
The Crucial Parallel Between China’s 2007 GDP and India’s Current GDP
- In 2007, China’s GDP stood at $3.6 trillion, slightly less than India’s current GDP of $3.7 trillion.
- This parallel sets the stage for a pivotal moment in Indian diplomacy, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
- Understanding this historical context is vital for appreciating the potential global impact of India’s diplomatic initiatives.
Drawing Lessons from China’s Geoeconomic Rise
- Examining China’s trajectory in 2008, when its GDP was lower than India’s current figure, sheds light on the geoeconomic strategies that propelled it to become a global powerhouse.
- China’s adept response to the global financial crisis, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, showcased its ability to leverage economic promise for significant geopolitical influence.
India’s Opportunity in 2024
- As India approaches 2024 with a GDP similar to China’s in 2007, it stands at a pivotal moment to exert substantial global influence.
- With Europe stagnating, the US turning inward, and China grappling with internal challenges, India has the opportunity to position itself as an additional engine of growth, institutions, and security.
Demonstrating India’s Potential and Additionality
- India’s agenda for the future should focus on demonstrating its potential and the “additionality” it can provide to global growth.
- While not requiring extraordinariness, India’s momentum, especially in the green and digital sectors, positions it as a formidable player on the world stage.
Attributes of Additionality and the Need for a New Cooperation Architecture
- To successfully offer additionality, India must develop a well-defined system and roadmap similar to what China presented 15 years ago.
- A new cooperation architecture is essential to support India’s global spending, with an emphasis on connectivity, supply chains, and resource resilience projects.
India’s Emergence as the Bank of the Global South
- Anticipating substantial global spending, India’s development finance is poised to grow significantly.
- Even with a conservative growth estimate of 10%, India could inject around $70 billion into the global system by 2030.
- To support this financial contribution, India needs an outward-focused development finance corporation and a global corporate-focused bank, akin to China’s development institutions.
The Importance of Outward-Focused Development Initiatives
- India’s Gati Shakti initiative, linking domestic infrastructure projects with a common vision, should be mirrored in its external engagement.
- Collaborating with like-minded partners, India must boldly outline priority infrastructure, connectivity routes, and developmental projects on a global scale.
The year 2024 is seen as a pivotal time for India to articulate its vision for its role in the world through a comprehensive world map.
