COP28 Pledges and India’s Ethanol Blending Challenge
As over 100 countries commit to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 at COP28 in Dubai, India grapples with challenges in meeting its ethanol blending targets.
Ethanol Blending Progress and Setbacks in India
While India witnessed a notable increase in ethanol-blended petrol (EBP) from 1.6% in 2013-14 to 11.8% in 2022-23, the 20% target by 2025 faces obstacles due to low sugar stocks and an anticipated sugarcane production shortfall.
Transition to Grains-Based Ethanol and Government Initiatives
In response to challenges, the government explores a significant shift towards grains-based ethanol, particularly maize. The recent authorization of procurement by NAFED and NCCF indicates a strategic emphasis on this transition.
Crude and Food Prices Dynamics in Ethanol Production
The note highlights the historical correlation between crude oil prices, food prices, and ethanol production. The use of sugarcane and corn as major feedstocks for ethanol production is examined, revealing potential conflicts between food and fuel.
Differential Pricing and Impact on Food-Fuel Binary
Differential pricing introduced in 2017-18 incentivizes the use of cane juice directly for ethanol production, intensifying the food versus fuel debate. The government’s corrective steps, including a ban on cane juice for ethanol, are discussed.
Implications of Grains-Based Ethanol on Food Inflation
The transition to grains-based ethanol, especially relying on maize, raises concerns about uncontrollable food inflation. Government estimates suggest a substantial quantity of grains needed annually, potentially triggering a short-run price spiral in grain markets.
Dilemma in India’s Renewables Strategy
The note concludes with a dilemma facing India’s renewables strategy, emphasizing the delicate balance between addressing fuel demand through ethanol and the potential risks of intensifying hunger. The author suggests alternatives such as reconsidering EBP targets or investing in public infrastructure and renewables like solar power.
Introduction:
The global rise in the consumption of High Fat Sugar Salt (HFSS) foods poses a significant health risk, contributing to issues like obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure. Contrary to the perception that this is primarily a concern in high-income countries, the World Bank reports that 70% of overweight and obese individuals reside in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, with a 55% increase in rural areas globally.
Health Burden in India:
India has witnessed a surge in Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs), with the burden escalating from 38% in 1990 to 65% in 2019. Annually, 1.2 million deaths in India are attributed to dietary risks alone, resulting in an economic impact estimated at $23 billion in 2017, projected to rise to $480 billion by 2060.
Shift in Dietary Habits in India:
The compounded annual growth rate of the ultra-processed food sector in India was 13.4% between 2011 and 2021.
As the largest producer and consumer of sugar globally, India has experienced a concerning increase in the consumption of HFSS foods, impacting health, productivity, and economic growth.
Global Trend: Taxation as a Solution:
Many countries, including Denmark, France, Hungary, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have implemented dedicated taxes on HFSS foods.
While sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are commonly taxed, HFSS food taxation is gaining traction. Fiscal measures, including taxes, are viewed as effective tools to combat obesity, with Colombia’s “junk food law” serving as a model.
Case for High HFSS Tax:
The need for taxing HFSS arises from market failures contributing to negative externalities and internalities.
Negative externalities result in increased societal healthcare costs, while internalities stem from consumers’ limited understanding influenced by aggressive marketing.
HFSS taxes can be a targeted and effective means to curb detrimental consumption habits, reducing societal burdens.
Designing Effective HFSS Taxes:
Unlike sin goods like tobacco and alcohol, HFSS taxation need not solely focus on revenue generation but can be a tool to incentivize industry reformulation and promote healthier choices.
Tax rates should be differentiated based on nutritional quality, making them non-regressive and fiscally neutral.
Aligning GST rates with nutritional content is crucial to addressing inconsistencies and promoting healthier alternatives.
Public Health Imperative:
HFSS taxation in India should be viewed not only as an economic concern but as a public health imperative.
Well-designed taxes can act as deterrents, promote healthier choices, prompt industry reformulation, improve public health outcomes, and reduce the burden on healthcare systems, fostering the nation’s well-being.
Conclusion:
Effectively designed HFSS taxes, when combined with measures like nutrition literacy promotion and food labeling, can be a potent tool to combat the growing epidemic of overweight and obesity, creating a more sustainable and equitable food system.
Overview of COP28 and India’s Position
The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai emphasized the global urgency to combat climate change. India positioned itself as a leader of the Global South, consistently advocating for climate justice. Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the disproportionate impact of climate change. While the conference’s final text fell short of explicitly calling for a fossil fuel phase-out, a historic agreement on transitioning away from fossil fuels hinted at a potential shift.
India’s Role and Contradictions
India’s role in COP28 gained attention for not signing crucial decarbonization pledges, including the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge. This appeared contradictory to India’s commitment to expanding renewable energy, as evidenced by its global ranking in renewable energy capacity installations in 2022 and investments in solar energy.
India’s Renewable Energy Achievements
Despite its commitment to renewable energy, India’s reliance on fossil fuels persists. The National Electricity Plan projects a significant increase in solar and wind energy production by 2032. However, India’s monthly energy generation report reveals a decrease in renewable energy generation, with thermal power plants, primarily coal-based, dominating electricity production.
Divergence in Commitments and Reality
India’s commitment to achieving 50% of its energy capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 contrasts with the current energy landscape. Fossil fuels, particularly coal, continue to dominate electricity production, posing a challenge to achieving the necessary targets for a sustainable future.
Complex Trajectory of India’s Energy Development
India’s energy development trajectory is complex, with recognition of the need for renewables alongside plans for a significant increase in coal capacity. The National Electricity Plan’s deviation from earlier drafts raises concerns, and the Climate Action Tracker deems India’s climate targets and policies as “highly insufficient.”
Impact of Climate Change on India
Climate change’s palpable impact on India includes an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves. The country averages 23.5 heatwaves annually, with a notable rise in heat-related mortality. Urgency for renewable energy infrastructure intensifies as climate change exacerbates the demand for electricity, particularly for cooling purposes.
Critical Assessment of India’s Climate Targets
Climate Action Tracker describes India’s climate targets and policies as “highly insufficient,” projecting that current policies will lead to rising emissions beyond 2030. Balancing economic development with environmental sustainability is crucial for India’s leadership in the Global South and its commitment to the Paris Agreement.
The Way Forward and Economic Incentives
India’s energy policy decisions in the coming years will be pivotal, testing its ability to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility. Choosing a renewable energy trajectory aligns with economic sense, as renewables are the cheapest power source. India’s contribution to global climate change mitigation hinges on how it expands and scales up its renewable energy capacity in the next decade.
Overview
Multiple districts in south Tamil Nadu experienced an unprecedented amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period starting from 6 a.m. on December 17. Notably, Thoothukudi recorded 361.4 mm, and Tiruchendur recorded 679 mm.
This sudden rainfall transformed the state’s previous northeast monsoon deficit into a 5% excess, leading to concerns about potential damages.
However, the impact in these smaller and less built-up areas was reportedly less severe compared to Chennai, which faced significant damage earlier due to Cyclone Michaung.
Shifting Baselines Syndrome
The editorial discusses the concept of the “shifting baselines syndrome,” emphasizing its impact on perceptions of environmental changes.
The syndrome, related to memory, community knowledge, and language, causes people to underestimate losses over time.
As climate change effects become more apparent, a new kind of shifting baseline emerges, extending into the future.
The editorial explores how language and memorialization play a crucial role in shaping perceptions of environmental changes.
Official Definitions and Their Limitations
- The piece delves into the importance of official terminology, or “officialese,” in translating complex scenarios for effective communication.
- It highlights the limitations of current definitions, such as the classification of ‘extremely heavy’ rainfall by the India Meteorological Department, which may not adequately differentiate between regions like Chennai and Thoothukudi that experienced similar rainfall but with varying impacts.
- The need for continually updating officialese is emphasized to align definitions with evolving environmental conditions.
Human Toll and Accountability
The article stresses the significance of understanding the human toll in assessing devastation, with a focus on the State’s accountability. It highlights how official responses to disasters, as evidenced by the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD), can shape public perception.
The example of attributing deaths to comorbidities during the COVID-19 pandemic is cited as a case where officialese influenced interpretations of the human toll.
Global Implications of Officialese
- The piece concludes by discussing the global implications of officialese, particularly in the context of climate-related disasters.
- Developing countries argue for a fair distribution of the ‘loss and damage’ fund based on the severity of disasters rather than their location.
- To achieve this, the article suggests the need for new official words to describe unprecedented environmental events, preventing challenges in global explanations and responses.
Conclusion
The editorial underscores the interconnectedness of language, memory, and community knowledge in shaping perceptions of environmental changes, while also emphasizing the crucial role of updated and precise officialese in addressing the challenges posed by shifting baselines and climate-related disasters.
The Challenge of Balancing Defense Priorities and Budget Constraints in India
Introduction: The MMRCA Program and Depleting Squadron Strength
The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program initiated by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in 2007, dubbed the ‘mother of all procurements’ with a cost of $10 billion, has faced challenges.
The purchase of only 36 Rafale jets a decade later left the IAF with a squadron strength of 32, far below the desired 126 aircraft.
The impending budgetary decisions amid electoral dynamics raise concerns about the impact on India’s defense posture.
Current Status of Armed Forces and Budgetary Constraints
The Indian Army, Indian Navy, and the IAF all face deficiencies, and the election-driven allocation for defense in Budget 2024-25 may further exacerbate the situation.
The current squadron strength of 32 is expected to reach 35 in another 10 years, emphasizing the urgency of addressing defense preparedness.
The Dilemma: ‘Affordable Defense’ vs. ‘Affordable Effectiveness’
The key question arises regarding whether budget considerations or the actual defense requirements should dictate allocations.
The IAF’s decision to acquire 97 Tejas Mk1A fighters, deviating from the planned 114 multi-role fighter aircraft, prompts a critical examination of the balance between ‘affordable defense’ and ‘affordable effectiveness.’
Northern Borders Threat and Need for Judicious Assessment
The live threat on the northern borders and uncertainties with the western neighbor necessitate a careful evaluation of India’s war strategy. With elections looming, the imperative to balance defense potency against budgetary constraints becomes even more critical.
Sea Power, Army Modernization, and Extended War Scenario
Emphasizing the necessity of accretion in sea power to deter China, the article underscores the need for the Army’s modernization, requiring considerable budgetary allocations.
The shift in military leadership’s perspective from a short sharp conflict to an extended war scenario, as seen in Ukraine, adds complexity to defense planning.
Indigenous Drive and R&D Challenges
While stressing the importance of technological modernization, the article acknowledges the decades-long process of developing a local defense industry.
Despite the Atmanirbhar Bharat drive, the hard reality of the armament supply chain and the need for a balanced approach between imports and indigenous accretions is highlighted.
Budgetary Stagnation and Research & Development
The analysis reveals that India’s defense budget, in real terms, has remained stagnant, with a declining percentage of central government expenditure allocated to defense.
Additionally, the meager allocation for research and development, as highlighted by the Global Innovation Index, raises concerns about India’s technological capabilities compared to global counterparts, particularly China.
Emphasis on Indigenization and the Way Forward
While lauding initiatives like Innovations For Defence Excellence (iDEX) and service-specific projects, the editorial calls for sustained momentum in policy-making, adequate defense budgeting, and election-proofing defense decisions in the democratic process. The imperative is underscored by the geopolitical shifts triggered by China’s actions, emphasizing the need for a due share of the defense budget to safeguard national security.
Conclusion: Balancing Costs, National Security, and Electoral Imperatives
The editorial concludes by emphasizing the importance of giving due consideration to defense budget allocations, avoiding compromises on national security for electoral gains. It calls for bipartisan statesmanship to ensure a sustained and well-thought-out approach to defense policy, considering the evolving geopolitical landscape and potential threats faced by India.
