Introduction:

• The article discusses the implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump (referred to as “Trump 2.0”) on U.S.-India relations.
• Trump’s first tenure saw an alignment between the U.S. and India, highlighted by close personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump, exemplified by events like “Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar.”

Key Areas of Impact:

1. Smooth Roads for Ties:
   • Technology & Defense: Trump is expected to continue building ties with India, particularly in areas like high-end technology, defense cooperation, and energy imports (oil and LNG).
   • Free Trade Agreement (FTA): He may also resume negotiations on an FTA, which stalled during his first term. Biden showed less interest in continuing these discussions.
   • Investment: Trump had previously aimed to encourage investments, like the $2.5 billion deal for the Driftwood LNG plant from Petronet India, which is likely to gain focus again.

2. Challenges Under Trump 2.0:
   • Domestic U.S. Policies: His rhetoric on trade tariffs and social media posts have been contentious. There is concern over the treatment of democratic norms, human rights, and religious freedom within the U.S., which may impact diplomatic relations.
   • Tariff Wars: Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs could reignite disputes over India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status and the World Trade Organization (WTO) complaints.
   • Foreign Interventions: Issues like Pakistan’s lobbying and Trump’s past comments about resolving the Kashmir issue could create diplomatic friction.

3. Trouble Areas:
   • Trade Tariffs: The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration and retaliatory tariffs by India could escalate tensions. Ongoing disputes about Harley Davidson motorcycles and other goods are also likely to continue.
   • Strategic Missteps: Trump’s social media engagement has, at times, sparked controversies, such as comments about internal Indian matters (CAA protests, Kashmir). His tendency to publicly discuss sensitive issues could create challenges for diplomatic relations.
   • Global Conflicts and Policies: Trump’s focus on reshaping alliances, particularly with Russia and China, and his handling of conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, could indirectly impact India’s strategic interests.

Conclusion:

• While a second Trump term could benefit India in certain areas, such as defense, trade, and technology, challenges remain regarding his unpredictable approach to diplomacy and trade tariffs.
• India will need to carefully navigate these challenges while leveraging potential benefits to strengthen bilateral ties, especially in areas like military cooperation and energy trade.