Introduction

• India, the fastest-growing large economy globally, is grappling with the challenge of soaring food-price inflation.

• This issue has persisted since 2019 and reached an alarming level in July 2023 when annual inflation surpassed 11%, the highest in a decade.

• The consequences of such persistent inflation are severe, potentially leading to a significant portion of the population struggling to afford a nutritious diet.

Alarming Statistics on Food Affordability

• The ‘State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World’ report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) revealed a staggering statistic for India in 2021: an estimated 74% of the population cannot afford a healthy diet.

• Given India’s massive population of 1.4 billion, this translates to approximately one billion Indians facing food affordability challenges.

• This finding aligns with other studies within India, indicating a declining ability of households to finance their food needs, with implications for nutrition.

Plausibility of the FAO’s Findings

• A study conducted in Mumbai between 2018 and 2023 highlights the increasing cost of preparing a traditional meal (“thaali”) at home, which rose by 65%.
• In dissimilarity, the average wages of both manual and salaried workers increased by 38% and 28%, respectively, during the same period.

• This income-food price gap implies reduced purchasing power and potentially lower food consumption.

• Furthermore, the rise in anaemia prevalence, mostly linked to nutrient deficiencies, as indicated by the National Family Health Survey conducted over 2019-21, reinforces the plausibility of FAO’s findings.

• Over 50% of adult women were estimated to be anaemic, underscoring the nutritional challenges faced by a significant portion of the population.

The Need for a Supply-Side Intervention

• Traditional macroeconomic policies, including those aimed at controlling inflation, have not proven effective in addressing food-price inflation.

• The Reserve Bank of India’s approach of reducing output in response to rising inflation, misleadingly termed “inflation targeting,” does not address the root causes of food inflation, mainly stemming from supply-side issues.

• Central banks alone cannot resolve this complex problem, necessitating a different approach focused on increasing agricultural productivity.

Learning from the Green Revolution

• India’s history includes the successful Green Revolution of the 1960s, a supply-side response to food shortages that significantly increased food production.

• This achievement was instrumental in making India self-reliant in food production. However, it came with some drawbacks, such as overreliance on chemical fertilizers and limited attention to protein sources.

• Instead of dwelling on past mistakes, there is a need to initiate a second agricultural revolution, aiming to lower the cost of producing food.

Initiatives for a Second Agricultural Revolution

To achieve a second agricultural revolution, several initiatives are crucial:

1. Expansion of Irrigation: Ensuring 100% irrigation coverage of the net sown area.
2. Land Leasing: Removing restrictions on land leasing to encourage capital investment.
3. Agricultural Research: Reinvigorating public agricultural research institutes.
4. Extension Services: Re-establishing extension services for disseminating best practices.
5. Protein Production: Focusing on increasing protein production to address nutritional deficiencies.

Role of States and Cooperative Federalism

• States’ involvement is pivotal in executing these initiatives. Collaborative efforts between the central and state governments, following a spirit of cooperative federalism, are necessary.

• States should also prioritize enhancing agricultural productivity rather than solely relying on central food allocations.

• A non-ideological approach that combines public and private enterprise, as seen during the Green Revolution, is essential for success.

Conclusion

Addressing India’s escalating food-price inflation and the resulting nutritional crisis is a pressing economic and social challenge. A supply-side intervention, akin to a second agricultural revolution, is imperative.

By learning from the successes and shortcomings of the Green Revolution and involving both central and state governments, India can work toward ensuring that all its citizens have permanent access to a healthy diet while preserving ecological security.