GS Paper II – International Relations / Diplomacy

Practice mains question:

“China’s assertive posture in recent years has fundamentally altered the India-China relationship.” Critically analyze India’s diplomatic and strategic response to this evolving challenge.

Introduction:

China’s Shift from Deng Xiaoping’s Doctrine

• China’s current posture under Xi Jinping deviates from Deng Xiaoping’s principle of keeping a low profile.
  
  
• Xi’s China is increasingly assertive, signaling its ambitions of becoming a “world civilization.”
  
  
• This transformation is evident in its activities on the Himalayan border and restoration efforts of imperial-era claims.
  
  

2. From Skirmishes to a Pattern of Escalation

• Border skirmishes (e.g., Doklam 2017, Galwan 2020) support the theory of a more aggressive China.
  
  
• These incidents show calculated escalations rather than isolated misunderstandings.
  
  
• The article references the India-China Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (1993) which is no longer respected in practice, especially after 2013.
  
  

3. Mistrust and Lack of De-escalation

• Even after formal agreements, Chinese forces continue to reinforce positions along the border.
  
  
• Despite talks, mistrust remains, and current behavior indicates a persistent threat rather than reconciliation.
  
  

4. Rising Military Asymmetry

• China’s military spending outpaces India’s by a wide margin (12x increase vs India’s 3x in recent years).
  
  
• China’s GDP is 5x larger, with greater defense investment, particularly in infrastructure and technology.
  
  
• China’s superior logistics and weaponry put India at a strategic disadvantage.
  
  

5. Strategic Partnerships Not Yielding Expected Results

• India’s partnership with the U.S. and other Western powers hasn’t significantly altered China’s posture.
  
  
• The ‘QUAD’ (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is yet to show concrete results against China’s assertiveness.
  
  
• Military and economic cooperation need more strategic alignment.
  
  

6. China’s Strategic Moves in the Neighborhood

• China is expanding influence across India’s neighborhood:
  
  
  • Pakistan: deepened military and economic ties.
    
    
  • Sri Lanka & Maldives: growing Chinese footprint.
    
    
  • Nepal & Bhutan: pressures and infrastructure projects.
    
    
  • Bangladesh: military cooperation and successful vaccine diplomacy.
    
    
• India’s neighborhood policy is challenged by China’s proactive diplomacy and influence operations.
  
  

7. China’s ‘Might is Right’ Posture

• China avoids rules-based diplomacy, instead using force and economic leverage to assert dominance.
  
  
• The global order may be challenged by such unilateralism, prompting India to strengthen its own posture.
  
  

8. India’s Strategic Response Needs Depth

• India must invest in:
  
  
  • Border infrastructure.
    
    
  • Cyber and space warfare capabilities.
    
    
  • Greater nuclear deterrence credibility.
    
    
  • Technological R&D and military modernization.
    
    
• Diplomatic balancing with Western powers and regional alliances is crucial.
  
  

9. Author’s Warning

• The editorial concludes with a caution:
  
  
  • India is in China’s strategic shadow.
    
    
  • War is not inevitable, but continuous military preparedness and strategic clarity are essential.
  • India must stay alert, strengthen its alliances, and prepare for a prolonged strategic contest.